Many USFS decisions use scenarios to assess how different management approaches will meet objectives, and what trade-offs are likely to occur. Often, this is done using predictive models developed by USFS. Some of the models commonly used by USFS do not yet include many ecosystem services outcomes, but other predictive models designed for ecosystem services can help to fill these gaps.
To explore how models from within and outside of USFS can be combined to provide a fuller analysis of ecosystem services outcomes, we used an ecosystem service conceptual model as a framework to examine the utility of currently available predictive models for quantifying the effects offire and timber managementon ecosystem services and socioeconomic outcomes.
The results are summarized in the predictive model library, which contains a summary of each predictive model that was assessed. Each entry in the library includes:
- Model name and description – what processes the model estimates and the context for which it was designed
- Data requirements – what data are required to run the model, and common sources for these data, if available
- Model outputs – the variables and file types that the model creates
- Connectivity to other models – how the model can be used with other predictive models, and what data processing would be required to make those connections
- Capacity required – whether the model is freely available, what computing power and level of expertise are needed to run the model
- USFS contact or external resources – USFS staff familiar with the model, if available, or model source
- Evaluation – how the model’s accuracy and validity have been evaluated
